Keir Starmer
has been warned that Labour’s own “Red Wall” heartlands will be hardest hit by cuts to the
winter fuel payment
and
disability benefits
.
The PM is
under pressure from Labour MPs to U-turn on the big spending decisions
after local election losses showed the party’s vulnerability to the rise of Reform UK.
Northern Labour MPs warned No 10 that voters would “continue to leave us in droves” for Reform unless the welfare reforms were ditched.
Cuts to
personal independence payments
(
PIP
) will be felt most intensely in Labour-held constituencies in the north of England –
seats Nigel Farage’s party are set to target at the general election
, according to research.
Data also indicates that local authority areas in the North are worst affected by the end of the universal winter fuel payment, worth between £200 and £300.
The decision by Chancellor Rachel Reeves means only those claiming pension credit – means-tested support for the very poorest pensioners – are now eligible for the winter fuel payment.
Policy in Practice, a data analytics company, used council and Government figures to estimate the number of people in each council area not claiming pension credit despite being eligible.
Unclaimed pension credit is a key indicator of poverty among older people, with charities warning it is this group who will feel the loss of winter fuel payment most severely.
Birmingham had the single highest number of pensioners not claiming pension credit despite being eligible, with more than 17,000 households missing out.
However, most of the top 20 worst affected council areas were in the North West, North East, and Yorkshire and the Humber regions – including Liverpool, Manchester, County Durham, Sunderland, Leeds, Sheffield and East Riding of Yorkshire. Many of these areas have historically supported Labour.
Although the research was carried out last year,
before a surge in pension credit claims over the winter
, Policy in Practice’s director Deven Ghelani said these areas were still more likely to have eligible pensioners who are missing out on support.
Ghelani said the winter fuel payment cut “has landed badly”, and the Government already appeared to have “paid a heavy price” for the policy at the local election polls.
However,the worst-affected councils could help the very poorest pensioners in their area through “targeted take-up campaigns” to boost pension credit claims, he added.
There is also evidence that the north of England will feel the biggest impact from looming cuts to disability and sickness benefits, because of the higher proportion of claimants in these areas.
Labour plans to reduce spending on PIP, and the incapacity element of universal credit, by almost £5bn in a bid to get more people into work.
A recent report by Health Equity North shows 19 of the 20 constituencies set to suffer the biggest losses from PIP are Labour-held seats in northern England. The only one not in the North and not held by Labour is Clacton in Essex – the seat held by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Top of the list is the former mining town of Easington in County Durham, set to suffer a £409 loss for each working-age person in the constituency per year, according to the research by the think tank.
Professor Clare Bambra of Newcastle University, a co-director at Health Equity North, said Labour’s heartlands would be hardest hit by PIP cuts.
“The areas with the highest losses are basically the Red Wall – the North East, North West, Yorkshire and the Humber – plus some deprived coastal areas.
“It’s not just the individuals [claiming PIP] – it affects the whole area, because there is less money in that community, less money being spent in shops.
“Clearly these are mostly Labour constituencies that are going to be losing economically. I think it probably is giving them pause for thought. How could it not?”
Policy in Practice’s research also shows that the North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humber and Wales will have the highest proportion of people affected by benefits cuts.
In north-east England, nearly 170,000 people will be affected by PIP and universal credit changes, 6.2 per cent of the population. Around £400m will be lost in the region’s economy.
In the North West roughly 430,000 people will be hit, 5.7 per cent of the population, with moer than £1bn lost.
“Our analysis found the most deprived areas face a double whammy – more people set to lose out, and a bigger hit on the local economy,” said Ghelani.
Read Next:
Winter fuel cut U-turn won’t repair damage, Labour insiders warn
Andy McDonald, Labour MP for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, wants No 10 to ditch both the winter fuel and disability benefit cuts.
“If we continue as we have with these cuts, people are not going to come back to us – they’ll continue to leave us in droves,” he told
The i Paper
. It goes to the heart of what Labour is for and who we govern for.
“The people around Keir Starmer have to realise they’ve alienated not just the voters but their own members. It we sustain this direction of travel, it’ll make the local elections look like a picnic.”
Rachael Maskell, Labour MP for York Central, also wants U-turns on both winter fuel and PIP cuts. Warning No 10 of the threat from Reform, Maskell told
The i Paper
there was a risk traditional Labour voters “look in the wrong places for hope”.
Another Labour MP – whose constituency is also in the north of England – said the local election results were a “wake-up call” about the threat of Reform in areas where cuts are felt the most.
“The Government must start listening,” said the backbencher. “If we forget our roots, we risk not only losing more seats – we also risk losing the trust of those who need us most.”
Labour is thought to be
considering some form of U-turn on the winter fuel payment
following the disastrous local election losses.
Caroline Abrahams, Age UK’s charity director, said the organisation “hopes it’s true” that No 10 is thinking about least a partial reversal.
She said the end of the universal payments had caused “huge anxiety and distress” over the winter, with some pensioners forced to keep their heating off “even when it was freezing”.
She said one option was to expand winter fuel payment beyond those in receipt of pension credit, since the low take-up of that means-tested benefit means too many people are missing out.
Experts have suggested that Labour could change the income threshold so more people are eligible for pension credit, or give winter fuel payment to all older people in lower council tax bands.
A DWP spokesperson said the Government was determined to support people “in all parts of the country” by “tackling poverty and creating secure, well-paid jobs”.